Global fresh produce security highly exposed to climate-driven price shocks, finds study

Extreme weather events are driving sharp increases in key food commodity prices around the world, disproportionately affecting fresh produce, an international team of researchers has found.

The study warns that these effects threaten food security and exacerbate mental and physical health outcomes, especially among vulnerable populations who are often forced to resort to less-nutritious foods in response to price shocks.

The team investigated examples across 18 countries over two years (2022-2024) in which price increases were associated with heat, drought, and heavy rainfall that were more extreme than ever recorded before 2020.

“We chose specific climate events connected to food price increases based on the following criteria: having occurred since 2022, having found reports from multiple sources of food price increases in relation to specific recent adverse weather conditions, with clear quotes of specific price changes over a specific time-period,” Maximilian Kotz, Marie Curie postdoctoral research fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and lead author, tells Food Ingredients First.

“Until we get to net zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, but it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food worldwide. People are noticing, with rising food prices number two on the list of climate impacts they see in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself.”

An interdisciplinary team from the BSC, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), European Central Bank, University of Aberdeen, and The Food Foundation conducted the study.

The research, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, does not rely on traditional economic modelling but analyzes data qualitatively.

“We use a narrative-based approach which relies on local reports from industry specialists, producers, and consumers to link adverse weather conditions to price changes. We are just interested in this piece to document examples of these phenomena, and then assess how extreme the climatic conditions are concerning usual conditions in those regions,” says Kotz.

Fresh produce hit hard

The most notable jumps reported include an 80% increase in November 2022 in California and Arizona in the US after Western droughts and a 22% hike in UK potato prices from January to February last year, following a wet winter.

Climate extremes in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire drove a 300% increase in global cocoa market prices by April 2024, compared to 2023.Onion prices in India jumped by 89% in the second quarter of 2024 after a heatwave in May, while East Asia saw a 70% rise in Korean cabbage prices in September 2024 compared to the previous year as overall vegetable prices surged 30% between June and August in China.

“Most examples we find involve impacts on fresh vegetable and fruit prices. Vegetables and fruit are particularly susceptible to price increases from extreme climatic conditions, because they are harder to store,” Kotz points out.

Climate extremes marred yields for other key crops such as olive and coffee. Droughts in Spain, which account for 40% of the world’s olive oil, drove a year-on-year 50% price hike across the EU by January 2024.

Unprecedented temperatures in key coffee-producing regions of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire resulted in a 300% increase in global cocoa market prices by April 2024, compared to the previous year.

In Ethiopia, food prices were reported to be 40% higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought.

Health outcomes

The study notes that rising food prices for fruits and vegetables can exacerbate food insecurity and its health implications. For example, households might spend the same but buy cheaper options, typically removing nutritious foods that are more expensive sources of calories.

“They are also essential for child health as they provide a major source of vitamins and nutrients that protect against various diseases. Increases in the price of these goods make it harder for families to afford nutritious food, which protects their children’s health, particularly for poorer families.”

The experts call for more targeted action to increase the production of British fruit and vegetables to help increase the sector’s resilience to shocks overseas.

“Healthy food shouldn’t be a luxury. The latest government data shows that Brits are consuming far below the required minimum of five fruits and vegetables a day,” says Shona Goudie, policy and advocacy manager at The Food Foundation.

The research team is developing a publicly accessible resource to monitor these climate-linked food price intersections. “There are plans to expand the list of food items in collaboration with the ECIU and The Food Foundation — we plan to make an online tool which tracks these events,” Kotz concludes.